ABOUT
HEAT PUMPS, EMISSIONS, AND THE GRID - A SYSTEM DYNAMICS EXPLORATION
WORKSHOP
Can Heat Pumps Deliver
a Net-Zero Future?
Heating and cooling our homes is one of the most carbon-intensive activities in everyday life—responsible for three times the greenhouse gas emissions of air travel. Heat pumps offer a promising solution: they use electricity to both heat and cool homes efficiently, and when powered by cleaner grids, they can significantly reduce household emissions and energy costs. But their
widespread adoption introduces dynamic trade-offs.
From a System Dynamics perspective, this is a classic case of unintended consequences and policy resistance. On one hand, policies that incentivize heat pump adoption may drive down emissions and improve energy efficiency. On the other hand, these same policies may amplify electricity demand, especially during peak winter periods—pushing the grid toward potential instability. If not appropriately managed, heat pump adoption could lead to blackouts, resulting in homeowners losing heat when it’s needed most and eroding public trust.
While adopting residential heat pumps to reduce emissions and meet climate goals is on the rise, limited installer capacity, electricity costs, and a strained electrical grid pose risks that can derail adoption and undermine system resilience. Conversely, if pump adoption acceleration occurs without parallel investment in installer training and grid modernization, the system will hit structural limits—causing consumer backlash and stagnated adoption.
EVENT FEATURES
A Simulation Exploration Workshop
Following the main presentation and simulation developed by Alexander Kuptel, a PhD student in System Dynamics at MIT Sloan, this hands-on workshop will explore the dynamic challenges of residential heat pump adoption and grid stability. Participants will engage in an open, interactive session where Alexander will run live simulation scenarios based on audience input—testing policy ideas, surfacing assumptions, and observing system behavior together in real time.
The simulation model is calibrated to Massachusetts and allows exploration of key policy levers such as installer training, consumer subsidies, demand response programs, and grid upgrades. Together, we’ll examine:
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Key feedback loops: how adoption rates, installer capacity, and grid reliability interact over time
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Delays: the time required to train HVAC professionals and modernize infrastructure
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Tipping points: when small changes in policy or timing can lead to large shifts in system outcomes
The session will close with a live Q&A and group discussion to reflect on key takeaways, real-world relevance, and policy questions that extend beyond the boundaries of the model.
Learning Objective
Heat pump adoption involves interconnected dynamics between technology, infrastructure, consumer behavior, and the electric grid. This simulation offers a unique opportunity to explore how policy levers—such as installer training, rebates, and grid upgrades—can trigger reinforcing or balancing feedback loops. Participants will examine how small shifts in capacity or trust can cascade through the system, influencing adoption rates, emissions, and grid stability. Engaging with these feedback structures deepens understanding of systemic trade-offs and equips participants to anticipate unintended consequences, design more resilient policies, and think strategically in the face of complexity.
Action Learning
Encouraging exploration, systems, and strategic thinking, game-playing simulations are risk-free environments to challenge mental models and day-to-day assumptions.
SUPPORTERS
THE VENUE
This is an online event.
The Event Schedule
12:05 – 12:10 pm EST: Introduction
12:10 – 12:40 pm EST: Presentation
12:40 – 12:55 pm EST: Q&A
12:55 – 1:00 pm EST: Closing Remarks & Announcements
1:00 – 1:30 pm EST: Additional Q&A